2018 Melbourne Property Market Outlook

melbourne-property

According to ANZ economists, Australian house prices will push modestly higher in 2018 and ramp up in 2019.

anz

National house prices are just 0.8 per cent higher than last 12 month – compare to 10 per cent growth in the previous year – but ANZ doesn’t expect the slowdown to deepen from here.

“We think most of the slowdown has already occurred,” the economists wrote this week. “We retain our view that prices will not materially decline”.

margan stanley

But Morgan Stanley analysts aren’t so confident, with risks seen to be building in 2018 after several months of house price weakness and possible further to-level regulatory pressure.

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From 4 major key Factors effects property price

  1. Supply and demand

Put simply if demand for houses increases faster than supply, then house prices go up. For house prices to fall the demand needs to fall.

supply and demand

  1. Interest rates

When interest rates rise, mortgage lenders generally increase the cost of variable mortgage payment. These higher interest rates in turn make home buying less attractive. Since the majority of Australia homeowner has variable mortgages, even a small change in tersest rates can have a gi impact on the affordability of buying a house.

3D finance graph - currency collapse - dollar.

3D finance graph – currency collapse – dollar.

  1. Economic growth

As the economy grows and wages increase more people can afford buy a house, this in turn increases overall demand, which increase prices.

economic

  1. Demographics

As levels of migration increase so do the population and more people means more demand for homes.

3d render of people on reflective pie chart. Concept of companies and business merge and acquisitions

3d render of people on reflective pie chart. Concept of companies and business merge and acquisitions

Highest Population rise in all states, increasing more than 100,000 by 2017. Almost 80% from international migrates and 17% migrates from interstate move to Victoria.

Victoria has most economic performance in 5 capital city, grouping by 3.33%. creat in 88% jobs, unemployed rates drop from 6.8 % in March 2017 to 5.2 % in Nov 2017

 

2017 Economy

Victoria

Population 6.32m
Population Growth Rate 2.34%
Gross State Product $399b
Jobs Added 87,600

 

Melbourne

Population 4.72m
Unemployment Rate 5.2%

Melbourne market is continual under supply vacancy of the city near or below 2% 2017. As the population growth, the property market will be continually considered under supply.

Building approves level still produce across all type of last 12 month of December 2017. Housing approve has down 28%, apartment approve has down 27%.

2017 Supply / Demand

Vacancy Rates: Melbourne

Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017
1.7% 1.8% 2.1%

 

Annual Building Approvals

Houses 26,200 (-28%)
Semi-detached 11,500 (-7%)
Apartments 15,500 (-27%)

Housing market has still 16.6% of capital growth in 12 month of October 2017. With robust under line of economic more affordable than Sydney, Melbourne housing market is keeping attractive market, despite the growth rate is showing signs of moderation

2017 Housing Market

Melbourne

Median Value $804,316
Capital Growth 16.6%
Median Rent $420 per week
AVM Rental Yield 3.3 %
Rental Increase $20 per week
Rental Change 5%

Apartment market enjoyed 6.8% of capital growth for last 12 month to October 2017. Higher quality of choices, relative affordable compare to house at convenience in the city bay compare city French house land living are strong drive this growth.

2017 Apartment Market

Melbourne

Median Value $539,810
Capital Growth 6.8%
Median Rent $400 per week
AVM Rental Yield 4.4%
Rental Increase $20 per week
Rental Change 5.3 %

 

Outlook in 2018, Melbourne market will continue to be under supplied. Affordability is a growing concern for many with increasing demand for townhouses and well designed the located apartments. And rental market will continue perform strongly with vacancy rate remain low. Melbourne’s ongoing population boom will continue under pin the strong demand of the market. As demand stay as high, supply new properties slow down due to more difficulty development conditions and state government planning changes, so this will place further pressure on prices and rents, but the slowdown has already occurred and it would be back on 2019.

2018年墨尔本房地产市场展望

melbourne-property
据澳新银行经济学家称,2018年澳大利亚房价将温和上涨,2019年将上涨。
澳洲全国房价仅比过去12个月高0.8% – 而去年同期10%增长相比相差巨大 – 但澳新银行并不认为这就能证明经济放缓正在加深。

经济学家近期认为:

我们认为大部分经济放缓已经发生 

我们认为价格不会大幅下降

margan stanley
但摩根士丹利分析师并不那么有把握,在经历数月的房价疲软和可能出现的进一步顶级监管压力之后,2018年风险依然显现。
ScreenHunter_11-Feb.-27-15.08-660x441
4个主要因素影响房地产价格
房屋供求
简单地说,如果房屋需求增长快于供应,那么房价就会上涨。对于房价下跌的需求需求下降。
supply and demand
银行利率
当利率上升时,抵押贷款人通常会增加可变抵押贷款的成本。这些较高的利率反过来也减低了购房的吸引力。由于澳大利亚的大部分房主都有可变的抵押贷款,即使是最小的贷款可能会影响购房的负担能力

3D finance graph - currency collapse - dollar.

3D finance graph – currency collapse – dollar.

经济增长
随着经济增长和工资增长,更多的人可以购买房子,这反过来会增加整体需求,从而提高价格。
economic
人口增加
随着移民水平的提高,人口和更多的人口意味着更多的住房需求。

3d render of people on reflective pie chart. Concept of companies and business merge and acquisitions

3d render of people on reflective pie chart. Concept of companies and business merge and acquisitions

墨尔本2018房产市场
根据CITY OF MELBOURNE网站,2018年墨尔本CBD人口预计还会有4%的增长。
populations
政府从2017年12月仍然批准对所有类型的建筑申请。但是房屋批准下降28%,公寓批准下降27%。这一措施抑制房屋过度开发,以求得到一个供求平衡。2017年墨尔本房地产市场的供应空缺持续保持低于2%。随着人口增长,房地产市场将渐显供应不足的状况。
economics
维多利亚州在5个首府城市的经济表现最佳,为3.33%。创造88%的就业机会,失业率从2017年3月的6.8%下降至2018年03月的5.5%。
unemployee-rates

Tips

至2017年10月的12个月内

住房市场仍保持16.6%的资本增长

由于经济环境比其他城市实惠

尽管增长率表现出温和迹象

2018墨尔本住房市场

还是一路既往的保持着吸引力

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