House prices ‘may have found a floor in July’, but no ‘signs of a recovery just yet’, CoreLogic data shows

There are further signs Australia’s worst housing downturn in modern history may be drawing to an end, with CoreLogic’s monthly index showing further modest price rises in July.

The company’s hedonic home value index showed a 0.1 per cent rise across the combined capital cities last month but nationally, including regional markets, prices were flat.

CoreLogic’s head of research Tim Lawless said, nationally, housing prices “may have found a floor in July” and it was the big east coast markets that were generally posting gains.

“We’re not really seeing signs of a recovery just yet, but absolutely we are seeing housing prices stabilising,” he said.

“We did see values rise last month in Sydney and Melbourne, in July we’ve actually seen that become a little more widespread — Sydney values are up 0.2 per cent, as are Melbourne values and Brisbane values, and also in Hobart and Darwin we’ve seen a subtle rise in values.

“Whereas we’re still seeing values drifting a little bit lower in Adelaide and in Perth, and [they] also dropped a little bit in Canberra.”

EMBED: Home prices CoreLogic July 2019

‘Stimulus for the market’

Mr Lawless said a range of factors had halted Sydney and Melbourne’s steep slide in prices, which was the worst property downturn those cities had experienced in decades.

One of those was the federal election outcome, which scuppered Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.

“We’ve seen a lot of that uncertainty around taxation reform taken off the table, which is starting to see investors pricking their ears up once again,” Mr Lawless said.

Westpac’s consumer sentiment survey has shown a significant rebound in both the “time to buy a property” and “house price expectations” indices.

Mr Lawless said interest rate cuts over the past two months had also boosted demand, along with looser lending restrictions from the bank regulator.

“We are seeing lower mortgage rates, which is providing some stimulus for the market,” he said.

“Mortgage rates haven’t been this low since the 1950s, so you can see why borrowers are taking advantage of those very low interest rates.”

“And they’re also taking advantage of the fact that it’s become a little bit easier to get a loan in the sense that APRA’s revised serviceability assessments are a little bit lower over the past couple of months.”

The lowest variable mortgage rates are just below 3 per cent, with most major lenders offering rates between 3.1 and 3.4 per cent per annum, and many offering fixed rates for up to five years for 3.5 per cent or less.

This has shown up in auction clearance rates in the two biggest cities, which are now well above 70 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne — a level typically associated with price increases.

“July saw the best monthly average clearance rates in Sydney since May 2017 and in Melbourne, it was the best since October 2017,” observed AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.

‘Recovery won’t be rapid’, expert warns

Mr Lawless said he thought the stabilisation would turn into a recovery in prices, “though it will be quite mild”.

“We probably will see values … edging a little bit higher across most markets, but I don’t think this recovery phase is going to be a rapid one,” he said.

“There are still some fairly stiff headwinds around the credit space … we are still seeing lenders [being] very conservative, focusing a lot more on individual expenses.”

Dr Oliver said there were also economic reasons why house prices were unlikely to take off again, like they did on the previous occasions when the Reserve Bank cut interest rates.

“Household debt-to-income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are much tighter such that a return to rapid growth in interest-only and investor loans is most unlikely, the supply of units has surged pushing Sydney’s rental vacancy rate well above normal levels and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak,” he observed.

“So we don’t see a return to boom-time conditions and expect constrained low single-digit price gains through 2020.”

Mr Lawless said, even if there was a return to rapid price growth, regulators would likely be quick to stamp it out.

“If we do start to see an acceleration in housing price growth, particularly from an investment perspective, we probably will see some additional policy levers being pulled in an aim to keep housing markets relatively stable and trying to minimise the upwards trajectory of household debt.”

Ref: business reporter Michael Janda (on 01 Aug 2019). House prices ‘may have found a floor in July’, but no ‘signs of a recovery just yet’, CoreLogic data shows. Retrieved from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/house-prices-continue-stabilisation-in-july/11372978

Image from internet

CoreLogic的数据显示,房价“可能已在7月份触底”,但还没有“复苏的迹象”

更多迹象表明,澳大利亚现代历史上最严重的房地产市场低迷可能即将结束,CoreLogic的月度指数显示7月价格进一步小幅上涨。

CoreLogic公司的房屋价值指数显示,上个月各首府城市的房屋价值综合增长了0.1%,但在全国范围内房屋价值呈现出持平的状态。

CoreLogic负责研究的领导人Tim Lawless表示,在全国范围内表示,由于澳洲东海岸的房屋市场近期都在上涨,房价在7月份可能已经触底。

 “我们还没有真正看到复苏的迹象,但绝对的我们看到了房价已经趋于稳定”他说。

 “我们确实看到在悉尼和墨尔本的上个月房价上涨,7月份我们实际看到房价的微微上升变得更加普遍 – 悉尼的房屋价值上涨了0.2%,在墨尔本值和布里斯班,以及在霍巴特和达尔文我们已经看到了房价的微妙上升。“

 “虽然我们仍然看到阿德莱德和珀斯的房价略微下降,以及在堪培拉的房价价也有所下降。”

EMBED: Home prices CoreLogic July 2019

对市场的刺激

CoreLogic负责研究的领导人Lawless先生表示,一系列因素阻止了悉尼和墨尔本的房价急剧下滑,这是这些城市几十年来经历的最严重的房地产衰退。

其中之一就是联盟政府赢得了连任的结果,叫停了工党提出的针对负面负债和资本利得税折扣的改革措施。

Lawless先生说:“我们已经看到很多关于工党提出的税收改革的不确定性,这种情况开始让投资者重新回到桌面。”

西太平洋(Westpac)银行的消费者信心指数显示,“购房时间”和“房价预期”指数均出现了反弹。

Lawless先生表示,过去两个月的降息,以及银行监管机构对贷款的宽松限制,推动了购房需求,。

Lawless先生还表示“我们看到抵押贷款利率的下降,为房屋市场提供了一些刺激,”。

 “20世纪50年代以来,目前的抵押贷款利率是最低的,所以你可以看到为什么借款人正在利用那些非常低的利率。

 “投资者还利用了在过去几个月APRA修订后的可服务性评估,更容易获得贷款。”

最低可变抵押贷款利率仅略低于3%,大多数主要贷款机构的年利率​​为3.1%至3.4%,而许多主要贷款机构提供长达五年的固定利率为3.5%或更低。

这已经体现在两个最大城市的拍卖清盘率中,目前悉尼和墨尔本的拍卖清盘率远高于70% – 这通常与价格上涨有关。

AMP Capital首席经济学家Shane Oliver表示,“自2017年5月以来,上个7月份悉尼的月平均清盘率达到最佳,墨尔本是2017年10月以来的最佳清盘率。”

专家警告说,复苏不会很快

Lawless先生表示,他认为房价的稳定将转变为房价的回升,“虽然这将是相当温和的”。

 “我们可能会看到房价……在大多数市场中略微走高,但我认为这个复苏阶段不会很快,”他说。

 “信贷领域仍然存在一些相当严重的阻力……我们仍然看到贷方非常保守,他们更多地关注个人开支。”

奥利弗博士Dr Oliver表示,为什么房价不可能马上回升,还有经济上的原因,就像之前储备银行降息时那样。

 “家庭债务与收入比率显示颇高,银行贷款标准要严格得多,以至于仅利息和投资者贷款的快速增长,房价的近期大幅回升不太可能,新房的供应量激增,推动悉尼的租赁空置率远高于正常水平,由于总体经济增长仍然疲弱,和失业率可能会上升,“他指出。

 “因此,我们目前看不到房价大幅回升所需要的条件,并预计到2020年房价的上升仅仅是在几个百分点的增长。

Lawless先生说,即使价格快速回升,监管机构也可能会迅速出来干预。

 “如果我们开始看到房价增长加速,特别是从投资角度来看,我们可能会看到一些额外的政策出台,目的是使住房市场保持相对稳定,并尽量减少过于繁重的家庭债务。 “

Ref: business reporter Michael Janda (on 01 Aug 2019). House prices ‘may have found a floor in July’, but no ‘signs of a recovery just yet’, CoreLogic data shows. Retrieved from https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-01/house-prices-continue-stabilisation-in-july/11372978

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