Melbourne Property Market Forecast 2019

Is it a good time to get into the real estate market in 2019 or should you hold off for better conditions? To forecast the year to come, it’s important to look at the past and how the market responded in similar conditions in the past.

The year that was, reflected a changing of the guard. At the start of 2018 we witnessed the property market switch from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market.

‘Prices have taken a small tumble in a market that seems to be unstoppable.’

This means property buyers had more choice and value when buying property. Good quality real estate still attracted high prices and competition, but didn’t over exceed true market value.

This story was reflected by the auction clearance rates. They dropped to around 20%, hovering around the 50% mark. The choice method of sale by real estate was by private negotiation.

My buyer’s agency found higher quality properties were not affected by a lack of buyers or competition. On the other hand, poor quality listings struggled to sell without a slight price reduction.

So will the property market crash in 2019?

Putting it simply, defiantly not. There are many economic fundamentals that are supporting a strong real estate market. Australian property market relies on many contributing factors to make it strong:

  • Victoria has recorded the fastest growing population in Australia.
  • Melbourne real estate is more affordable than Sydney.
  • Melbourne has Australia’s lowest unemployment rate.
  • State & federal government has a record level of investment in major infrastructure projects.
  • Low interest rates.
  • Strong local economy that is in surplus.
  • Low rental vacancy rates.
  • Banks have tightened lending practices, making it harder to borrow.

Post GFC

We had a similar slowdown in property prices which was brought on from global influences, particularly the USA and the Global Financial Crisis.

This worried many investors as the media was reporting the end of the good-days and property prices in Australia dropped approximately 10% to 15%. The whole decline was followed by a sideways market, very similar to 2018.

The whole process lasted approximately 5 to 6 years with prices recovering and seeing a 30% to 40% increase since.


A cooling real estate market creates a safe future.

A slower market makes everyone behave correctly:

  • Lenders need to be wiser about the loans they’re writing as they can not hand out money to risky borrowers.
  • Property sellers need to make sure their houses are up to scratch to achieve a good price.
  • Property buyers get better value for their money.
  • Real estate agents need to do some hard work for a sale.

Why is the property market cooling?

The Banks

Over the last 3 years, the government has put a lot of pressure around responsible lending. My clients have discovered banks are going into greater detail to verify their financial positions, making sure they have legitimate savings and loan affordability.

As a result, homebuyers and investors are finding it difficult to borrow money from all the major banks.

There has been a noticeable drop in investors taking out mortgages and as result there has been less completion in the property market.

Election Year

The fear of a new government effects many markets across Australia. Investors are worried about new governing policy changing the normal order for the purpose of fixing or improving issues.

The most noticeable current issue comes with the rising of property prices. Real estate affordability has become a major problem. New governments are looking at getting rid of negative gearing to cool real estate markets further. Hence investors are holding back to see who wins the next election prior to acting.

Change In First Home Buyers

With the median house price hovering over $800,000 in Melbourne, the humble first homebuyer still has an affordability issue if they want to purchase in metro Melbourne. First homebuyers are making moves to regional parts of Victoria with property prices booming in places like Geelong and Melton.

2019, The Year Of The Landlord.

Less investment in property will reduce the number of available rentals to the market, hence increasing the demand for rental properties, pushing up rental rates.

This means more dollars in the landlords pockets and better quality tenants that will consider longer-term leases. 

Victoria is still the fastest growing state in Australia, by population, that needs to house all it’s new occupiers.


Property Prices 2019.

The property investor will be rewarded with:

  • Slightly cheaper purchase prices than 2018.
  • Less competition from buyers.
  • Increasing rental yields
  • More choice / variety in property stock.
  • Better tenants.
  • First homebuyers will be active in regional hubs like Geelong rather than Melbourne.

Conclusion

A reality of real estate in Melbourne is that prices always seem to be going up. Property buyers fall into the trap of following the Jones’ and only buying when everyone else is buying.

When the market slows down, the media goes into over-drive on reporting a housing crash and buyers have a genuine fear of getting into the market.

But this is how the brave reap the best fruits. The most successful investors

            ‘ Buy with the market is selling and sell when the market is buying.’ – Warren Buffet.

It’s Natural For The Market To Move In Cycles.

Having rational property prices that auto-correct themselves keeps us safe from economic disaster. Things like real estate bubbles and high inflation rates are unheard off.

Even if a new government comes in and makes changes to negative gearing and prices fall further, remember the people who make the most money in the real estate investing game are long-term property holders that own good quality real estate.

My personal belief is, as long as Australia is a great place to live and work, property will always be the best way to invest for the long term.

Ref: Mark Ribarsky. Melbourne Property Market Forecast 2019. Retrieved from https://wiserealestateadvice.com.au/melbourne-property-market-forecast/

2019年以后墨尔本房地产市场预测

现在是进入2019年房地产市场的好时机,还是应该往后推迟?为了预测今后一年,重要的是要回顾过去市场在类似情况下的反应。

在2018年初,我们目睹了房地产市场从买方市场转向卖方市场。

 “市场的价格在一个看似不可阻挡的趋势中小幅下挫。”

这意味着购房者在购买房产时有更多的选择。优质的房地产仍然处于高价和买方竞争状态。

这个现象反映在拍卖清盘率上,他们跌至20%左右,徘徊在50%左右。房地产销售的最终选择方法是私下谈判。

我的买方代理商发现,高质量的房产不缺乏买家或竞争影响。另一方面,其他房产在没有调整价格的情况下难以售出。

2019年的墨尔本房地产市场会崩溃吗?

简单地说,坚决不会。有许多经济因素支撑着强大的房地产市场。

·         维多利亚州是澳大利亚人口增长最快的州。
·         墨尔本是澳大利亚失业率最低的市。 
·         维多利亚州和联邦政府对于主要基础设施的投资达到了创纪录水平。 
·         强劲的当地经济处于盈余状态。  
·         银行收紧贷款行为,使其难以借贷。
·         银行低利率。 
·         租金空置率低。 
·         墨尔本房地产比悉尼更实惠。  

GFC发布

澳洲房地产价格也出现了类似的放缓,这是受全球影响,特别是美国和全球金融危机的影响。
由于媒体报道澳大利亚的房地产价格下跌约10%至15%,这令许多投资者感到担忧,整个下跌之后是横向市场,与2018年非常相似。

GFC 认为整个过程大约持续5到6年, 此后价格会回升增长30%至40%。

冷却的房地产市场创造了一个安全的未来。

较缓的市场使每个人都表现得保守:

·         物业卖家需要确保他们的房屋能够达到合理的价格。  
·         贷款人需要更精确的贷款资料。 
·         购房者可以获得更高的价值。
·         房地产经纪人需要为销售做一些艰苦的工作。

为什么房地产市场降温?

银行

在过去3年中,政府对贷款施加了很大压力。银行正在更详细地核实他们的财务状况,确保有合法的储蓄和贷款负担能力。

投资者抵押贷款的数量明显下降,因此房地产市场的清盘率下降。

选举年

对新政府的恐惧影响了澳大利亚的房地产市场。投资者担心新的治理政策会改变正常秩序。

2018年以前的房地产价格上涨引起了政府的关注。房地产可负担性已成为一个主要问题。新政府正在寻求摆脱负债以进一步调整房地产市场。因此,投资者在行动之前处于观望状态。

首次购房者的变化

由于墨尔本房价中位数价格超过80万,迫使首次购房者投资方向由墨尔本市区向外围地区迁移,房地产价格在Geelong和Melton等地区蓬勃发展。

2019年 – 房东年。

较少的房地产投资数量将会增加对房产租赁的需求,从而推高租金。

这意味着房东有更多的收益和更优质的租户,意味着更长期的租约。

物业投资者将获得以下奖励:

·         购买价格比2018年便宜一些。
·         减少买家的竞争。
·         提高租金收益率
·         更多的选择。
·         更好的租户。

结论

墨尔本房地产的价格总是上升,房地产买家总是跟风。

当市场放缓时,媒体过度报道房地产市场的崩盘,导致买家对进入市场的恐惧。

但获得最大利益的总是那些勇敢者。

这对于市场来说是自然而然的。

拥有合理的房产价格,市场可以自动纠正价格,使我们免受经济灾难的影响。房地产泡沫和高通胀率等问题闻所未闻。

即使新政府进入改变负债和价格的进一步下跌,记住在房地产投资游戏中赚钱最多的人仍然是长期拥有优质房地产的投资者。

“当 熊 市 市 场 的 时 候 买 入,当 牛 市 场 的 时 候 卖 出。” – 沃伦巴菲特。

Ref: Mark Ribarsky. Melbourne Property Market Forecast 2019. Retrieved from https://wiserealestateadvice.com.au/melbourne-property-market-forecast/